Summary:
- Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, diversions have surged by over 360% from an average of 218/day to 1,010/day. All major carriers are diverting shipments from the area, but MSC has diverted the most shipments so far, making up 59% of all tracked diversions.
- The top ports that shipments are being diverted away from are Abu Dhabi, Ali Jebel (Dubai), and Hamad. Khawr Fakkar is receiving the bulk of diverted volumes, but Sohar and Hambantota will receive diverted freight as well. Expect operational delays at all three ports while they adjust to the influx of volume.
- Delays are now spreading into downstream markets, with India’s major gateways seeing arrival and departure delays increasing by as many as 49 days.
Overview
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow 21‑mile‑wide passage between Iran and Oman that links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It is one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, carrying roughly one‑fifth of global oil shipments each day. Following joint U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the strait closed, which led major shipping lines to halt transits and carriers executing the largest coordinated rerouting response since the Red Sea crisis of 2023.
In contrast to the Red Sea crisis, there is no “long route” option like the Cape of Good Hope. There are some ports that are effectively cut off with the closure of the strait, including the Port of Jebel Ali, one of the world’s busiest ports. This closure will have major impacts to global supply chains and will cause shipping delays. Expect to see surging container dwell, increased schedule delays, and major port congestion as shipments are diverted away from the Strait of Hormuz.
Diversions around the Strait of Hormuz surge
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has heavily impacted vessel traffic patterns. With vessels unable to pass through the Strait, containers are being diverted to other ports that are accessible without passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the closure of the strait, diversions have surged by more than 360% as vessels scramble to shift their schedules away from the Strait. Since the closure of the strait, there’s been a daily average of 1,010 diversions compared to a baseline of 218 prior to the closure.
March 3rd and March 5th were the two days with the highest diversions, with both days exceeding over 2,000 diversions. March 5th set a new record for single day diversions in the region at 2,363 diversions in a twenty-four hour period. Since that date, the number of daily diversions has tapered off as carriers select alternate routes.
The need to divert shipments is not unique to any one ocean carrier and is widespread throughout all major shippers. With this said, MSC is currently the most heavily impacted ocean carrier, accounting for 59% of all diversions tracked.
Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Hamad are experiencing the highest percentage of rerouted shipments, with Khawr Fakkan receiving the bulk of the rerouted shipments. Sohar, Hambantota, Mundra and Navi Mumbai are also seeing some of the rerouted volumes. project44 is closely monitoring these ports for operational disruptions due to the influx of volume.
Departure and arrival delays at Indian ports
Calculation: 7 day rolling median of delays based on planned last dates for POL departure and POD arrival, pre-closure (27 February) vs post-closure (8 March)
These dwell patterns are already showing up as downstream delays. Indian gateways feature prominently among the top lanes receiving diverted traffic, with Mumbai and Mundra seeing increased pressure as shipments are re‑routed and linehaul schedules are rebuilt. Mundra is already seeing a 72% (11 days) increase in departure delays and a 27% (49 day) increase in arrival delays, while Navi Mumbai is seeing a 118% (13 day) increase in departure delays and a 16% (22 day) increase in arrivals. Downstream impacts will likely continue to increase as ports process through surging volumes.
Summary
The escalation of conflict across the Middle East after March 1 created immediate uncertainty for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting carriers to pause transit, delay bookings, and hold vessels in safer waters. While the Strait remains volatile, carriers will need to continue diverting shipments to accessible ports, and those receiving ports will continue to struggle operationally with the sudden increase in volume. As a result, expect delays and schedule changes to ripple throughout global supply chains. With recent changes to war risk insurance and the high-risk nature of the area, there is not clear timeline on when carriers will decide to resume shipping through the Strait.
